Projected Finish
47 min
+2 min vs WR · -5 min vs PB
Yksityiskohtainen opas tulossa pian
Työskentelemme kattavan oppaan parissa kohteelle Speedrun Pace Calculator. Palaa pian katsomaan vaiheittaiset selitykset, kaavat, käytännön esimerkit ja asiantuntijavinkit.
The Speedrun Pace Calculator tracks a runner's current time relative to a personal best (PB) or world record (WR) pace, project final time based on completed splits, and identify which segments need improvement to reach a time goal. Speedrunning is the practice of completing video games as quickly as possible, with categories ranging from any% (fastest possible completion, allowing any means) to 100% (full game completion) and category extensions. Split tracking is central to speedrunning: each major segment (level, boss, room, or landmark) has an expected split time, and the running comparison shows whether you are ahead or behind your target pace. The most widely used speedrun timing tool is LiveSplit, which shows current time, split-by-split comparison to PB/WR/average, gold splits (personal best for each individual segment), and projected final time. Gold splits are the personal best time for each individual segment in isolation — a perfect run would match all gold splits, though achieving all golds simultaneously in a single run is extraordinarily rare because each segment must be executed perfectly back-to-back. Run pace calculations: if you are 5 seconds ahead of WR pace at segment 15 of 20, and historical data shows you average 3 seconds slower than WR in segments 16-20, your projected finish is 5-3=2 seconds ahead of WR — a potential world record. Understanding pace math helps runners make real-time decisions: should I attempt a risky skip to gain 10 seconds when I'm already 8 seconds ahead of PB? The expected value of the skip attempt must weigh the probability of success times the gain minus the probability of failure times the time lost.
Projected Final Time = Completed Split Time + Average Remaining Splits Time Delta = Current Split - Target Split (negative = ahead, positive = behind) Run Value Score = (PB - Current Run Projection) / PB
- 1Step 1: Set up LiveSplit with splits for every major segment of the run.
- 2Step 2: Import comparison data (WR, PB, or average run) for each split.
- 3Step 3: During a run, monitor the delta (time difference) relative to your comparison.
- 4Step 4: At each split, recalculate projected finish using remaining average splits.
- 5Step 5: Decide whether risky skips are worth attempting based on your current delta and success rate.
- 6Step 6: After a run, review which splits lost the most time relative to gold for targeted practice.
Running 8 seconds ahead of PB pace at the midpoint and maintaining that advantage through the remaining splits would yield a new personal best by 8 seconds. In practice, late-game segments have higher variance — critical tricks and boss patterns may undo the lead. The runner must decide whether to play safely (protect the PB) or attempt risky optimizations to push toward WR pace.
Comparing gold splits to average splits across all chapters reveals where a runner loses the most time. Chapter 5 has 55 seconds of variance between gold and average — the largest improvement opportunity. Focused practice on Chapter 5 specific sections would yield more time savings than equal effort on Chapter 2 where variance is only 17 seconds. This analysis guides efficient practice session planning.
Expected value analysis shows this skip attempt has a negative expected outcome: on average you lose 15 seconds by attempting it. Even though you are behind WR pace and need the time back, a 40% success rate on a skip with heavy failure penalty makes it statistically a bad decision. The breakeven success rate for this skip is 45/(45+30) = 60% — only attempt if your true success rate exceeds 60%.
Choosing between any% and 100% categories depends on your goals. Any% is typically more optimized through community research and has more runners, creating a collaborative knowledge base for tricks and routing. 100% categories often have less competition at lower skill levels, potentially making personal podium placements more achievable for newer runners. Most runners start with any% to learn the game's routing fundamentals.
Tracking current run vs PB/WR during an active attempt, representing an important application area for the Speedrun Pace in professional and analytical contexts where accurate speedrun pace calculations directly support informed decision-making, strategic planning, and performance optimization
Identifying which segments need targeted practice, representing an important application area for the Speedrun Pace in professional and analytical contexts where accurate speedrun pace calculations directly support informed decision-making, strategic planning, and performance optimization
Calculating expected value of risky skip attempts, representing an important application area for the Speedrun Pace in professional and analytical contexts where accurate speedrun pace calculations directly support informed decision-making, strategic planning, and performance optimization
Educational institutions integrate the Speedrun Pace into curriculum materials, student exercises, and examinations, helping learners develop practical competency in speedrun pace analysis while building foundational quantitative reasoning skills applicable across disciplines
TAS (Tool-Assisted Speedruns)
{'title': 'TAS (Tool-Assisted Speedruns)', 'body': 'TAS runs use emulators to advance the game frame-by-frame with perfect inputs, achieving times impossible for human players. TAS records are maintained separately from human runs on TASVideos.org and are used to identify theoretical limits and undiscovered tricks. TAS records are not considered legitimate human speedruns.'}
Marathon Safety Strats
{'title': 'Marathon Safety Strats', 'body': "In charity marathons (SGDQ, AGDQ), runners avoid risky tricks that could crash the run, opting for safer strategies with lower time ceilings but higher reliability. 'Estimate' (submitted predicted time for scheduling) typically accounts for 5-10 minutes of safety buffer beyond the runner's average."}. In the Speedrun Pace, this scenario requires additional caution when interpreting speedrun pace results. The standard formula may not fully account for all factors present in this edge case, and supplementary analysis or expert consultation may be warranted. Professional best practice involves documenting assumptions, running sensitivity analyses, and cross-referencing results with alternative methods when speedrun pace calculations fall into non-standard territory.
When using the Speedrun Pace for comparative speedrun pace analysis across
When using the Speedrun Pace for comparative speedrun pace analysis across scenarios, consistent input measurement methodology is essential. Variations in how speedrun pace inputs are measured, estimated, or rounded introduce systematic biases compounding through the calculation. For meaningful speedrun pace comparisons, establish standardized measurement protocols, document assumptions, and consider whether result differences reflect genuine variations or measurement artifacts. Cross-validation against independent data sources strengthens confidence in comparative findings.
| Category | Description | Typical Time vs Story | Skill Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any% | Fastest completion, all glitches | 10-90% of story time | High (glitch execution) |
| Glitchless | No glitches, all intended mechanics | 60-100% of story time | Medium |
| 100% | All collectibles/objectives | 100-200% of story time | High |
| Low% | Minimum items/abilities | Variable | Very High |
| Category Extensions | Custom challenge rules | Variable | Varies |
What is LiveSplit and how do I set it up?
LiveSplit is the premier free speedrun timing application, available for Windows and supported on Linux via Mono or Proton. It tracks split times, compares against personal bests and world records in real time, shows gold split status, and provides a projected finish time. Setup involves creating a splits file with your game's segment names, importing comparison data (paste from speedrun.com), and customizing the display. The LiveSplit One browser-based version works on any platform.
What is a reset and when should I reset a run?
A reset ends the current run immediately without completing it, returning you to the start for a fresh attempt. Reset criteria vary by runner and goal: some reset only for obvious death or major mistake early in a run; others have strict split comparison thresholds (reset if more than 15 seconds behind WR after world 1). For PB-hunting, a common rule is: reset if the projected finish is more than 1-2 minutes slower than your PB at any major split. For WR attempts, the threshold is much tighter.
How do I find the world record and community resources for my game?
Speedrun.com is the central repository for world records, category definitions, and community rules for virtually every speedrunnable game. Each game page lists all categories, current WR videos, and leaderboards. The game's Discord server (linked on speedrun.com) is where active runners discuss routing, share tricks, and coordinate knowledge. YouTube has extensive tutorial content for most popular speedrun categories.
What is a glitch and are glitches allowed?
Glitches are unintended game behaviors that exploit programming bugs — clipping through walls, triggering wrong warps, wrong loads, or wrong warp zones. Category definitions determine which glitches are permitted: 'any%' allows all glitches; 'glitchless' bans them; some categories have specific rule sets. The most exploited glitches, like the Super Mario 64 Parallel Universes trick or various ACE (Arbitrary Code Execution) glitches, can reduce full game times by hours.
How long does it take to get a world record?
WR time frames vary enormously by game and category. New speedrunning games may have WR accessible within months for dedicated runners — no established community means the initial WR is set with only basic optimization. Popular games like Ocarina of Time or Super Mario Odyssey have 10,000+ collective hours of routing research invested, with WR margins now measured in seconds after decade-long optimization. New runners of popular games realistically target top-100 positions rather than WR as meaningful milestones.
What makes a game good for speedrunning?
Ideal speedrunning games have: clear, repeatable objectives (you can define a clear start and end); exploitable glitches or routing variations that create interesting decisions; reasonable run length (20-90 minutes is the sweet spot for both runner engagement and audience retention); an established community generating guides and tricks; and replayable content that doesn't become monotonous after 100+ identical runs. Games with RNG (random number generation) add variance that can be mitigated through manipulation techniques.
How does RNG affect speedruns?
RNG (random number generation) introduces variance in enemy behavior, item drops, and event triggers that affect run consistency. Runners mitigate RNG through: RNG manipulation (performing specific inputs to force favorable random outcomes), RNG-favorable routing (taking paths that minimize RNG-dependent segments), or simply accepting variance and optimizing everything else. High-RNG categories have wider WR variance and require more consistent execution of non-RNG elements to compensate.
Ammattilaisen vinkki
Before attempting a full run for PB, spend at least as much time in isolated segment practice as in full-run attempts. Identifying your 3 largest time losses versus gold and practicing those segments specifically multiplies improvement speed compared to running the full game repeatedly.
Tiesitkö?
The Super Mario Bros. world record has been broken over 100 times since speedrunning became popular, with the current record hovering around 4:54. The game's physics are now so thoroughly understood that optimizations are measured in fractions of a second. The community refers to the theoretical perfect run as the 'theoretical fastest time' (TFT), calculated at approximately 4:53.589.
Hanki viikoittaisia matematiikkavinkkejä
Liity 12 000+ tilaajien joukkoon, jotka saavat laskurivinkkejä joka viikko.